Saturday, August 30, 2008

Most are focusing on small details around Comcast...

...and are failing to see the much bigger picture that this presents to the industry at large. I believe Comcast will create a notion of "on network" (within Comcast peers) vs. "off network" (outbound public internet). Here are the realities that are not being discussed as they (bloggers) stress about a (at present) generous 250 Gigabyte monthly cap:
  1. Comcast must develop and make available additional "on network" features as an offensive move against Verizon FiOS and other competitors
  2. Comcast already owns Fancast... what does Fancast turn into? If users are going to be "restricted" from viewing content at other sites due to the cap will Fancast morph into something more than just an extension of Hulu?
  3. A new business model where Comcast can charge 3rd party bandwidth consumers (e.g., P2P, Hulu, etc.) a cost to act as an "on" network provider (thereby evading the bandwidth cost).
  4. Spurs innovation of technologies that take into account the realities of the internet. I've seen so many saying this somehow stifles innovation; what good is innovation if it breaks the intended medium? We've known for years that networks have constraints; this is a step towards responsible product development! Limiting consumption does not address other issues such as concurrency (Multicast anyone?) but does change the paradigm/ thought...
The foundation for the three points above follows the logic that Comcast cannot remain competitive unless they offer the same perceived value as a FiOS. Therefore, if the cap inhibits the ability to stream or acquire HD content via. the web it would be a loser; if it limits P2P it will win since many users do not participate in this activity (to date).

On the point around business models; with the success of the BBC iPlayer (which is P2P enabled), and NBC Universal's disastrous attempt to replicate with NBC Direct, Comcast certainly does not want to absorb cost avoided by Big Media without some residual benefit. Comcast could look to charge for "CDN" type activity on their network (P2P nodes), could license an approved P2P technology, or may look to create a platform for peer enabled content distribution. All speculation of course.

The minor PR ding that Comcast has taken, in the bigger picture is easily mitigated as Comcast will open several new business and revenue sources. What's funny is that most users with an iPhone, AT&T 3G, or Verizon AirCard are unaware that their "unlimited" plans are metered over 5 Gigabytes a month.

Coverage from around the web:

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